GUIDANCE12 / 30d
Raises, cuts, withdrawals · 8-K and press releases
avg |move| 5.8% · same day
M&A6 / 30d
Deals, strategic reviews, activist stakes
avg |move| 14.2% target side
REGULATORY9 / 30d
FDA decisions, antitrust, tariffs, agency rules
binary · dated in advance
INSIDER & LOCKUPS14 / 30d
Form 4 clusters, lockup expiries, 10b5-1 plans
avg −3.8% into expiry
ANALYST28 / 30d
Upgrades, downgrades, initiations, PT changes
avg |move| 1.9% · fades fast
MACRO11 / 30d
Fed, CPI, jobs, OPEC · mapped to your exposure
FOMC SEP 16 next
LEGAL4 / 30d
Rulings, settlements, DOJ/FTC actions
GOOGL remedies SEP 11
CAPITAL RETURNS7 / 30d
Buyback authorizations, dividend changes, splits
avg |move| 2.4%
Special situations · next 30 daysEXP MOVE = OPTIONS-IMPLIED · PROB = MODEL, SHOWN WITH BASE RATE
DATETYPESYMEVENTEXP MOVE / PROBFOR YOU
SEP 16
TYPEMACRO
SYMFOMC
EXP MOVE / PROBSPX ±1.1%
FOR YOUWHOLE BOOK